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Prediction for CME (2024-04-18T02:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-04-18T02:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30128/-1
CME Note: Faint partial halo CME seen to the NE in all coronagraphs. The source is likely a massive dimming region (spanning approximately E35->E15 and S10->N12) following some weak field line and loop breaking (observed across wavelengths SDO AIA 131/171/193/211) from AR 3645, which begins around 2024-04-17T22:09Z and dims until about 2024-04-18T02:09Z. A slow rise in x-ray flux is noted in SDO AIA 131 and GOES real-time x-ray flux over this time but no "flare" occurs. This dimming notably begins well before the start time giving some lower confidence, but this region gave an excellent visual fit in SWPC_CAT during the measurement process compared to other longitudes or Plane-Of-Sky. A wider front to the north of this one emerging at 2024-04-18T04:12Z is likely from this same eruption, measuring 230 km/s as a Plane-Of-Sky.
CME Arrival Time: -----
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: -----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-04-21T14:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30133/1
Model Inputs:
2024-04-17T21:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-21.0, Lat.=-20.0, Speed=378.0, HalfAngle=28.0, Time21.5=2024-04-18T05:27Z
2024-04-18T02:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-25.0, Lat.=14.0, Speed=349.0, HalfAngle=39.0, Time21.5=2024-04-18T12:30Z
2024-04-18T06:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-16.0, Lat.=-36.0, Speed=438.0, HalfAngle=18.0, Time21.5=2024-04-18T14:31Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-04-21T14:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-04-21T08:00Z
Psyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-04-26T00:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 64.80 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2024-04-18T21:12Z

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